Oil exports may not drop below 1.5 million bpd

The return of sanctions will not drop Iran’s oil exports to below 1.5 million barrels a day, said Reza Padidar, Member of the Board of Directors at the Tehran Chamber of Commerce. Out of the 16 importers of Iranian oil, 5 countries i.e. India, China, South Korea, Japan and Turkey are traditional importers of Iranian oil. These countries have either received permission to import Iranian oil or are in negotiations to do so.

Mr. Padidar points to the figures of the last deliveries of oil to these 16 countries which show the sale of 2.2 million barrels of crude oil a day and said: “70% of Iranian oil export contracts are short-term and these sales are still ongoing.”

He emphasized that the export of oil to a number of countries such as Singapore have led to a 200 to 300 thousand barrel drop in oil export. Retaining traditional customers can be a solution to maintain the minimum 1.5 million barrels a day export.

He continued: “For example Japan has received permission to buy a minimum of 100 thousand barrels of Iranian crude oil a day. China continues to buy 770 thousand barrels. India which imports between 400 and 500 thousand barrels of crude oil is in negotiations to gain exemptions from US sanctions. South Korea has halved its export reaching 150 thousand barrels a day. Meanwhile, Turkey and the European Union purchase in the range of 700 to 900 thousand barrels a day.”

He pointed to exports of oil during the last wave of sanctions which were between 850 thousand and 1 million barrels and expressed belief that the export of oil cannot be stopped.