Over the past years, if not decades, we have got used not to take seriously the government’s economic forecasts. However, it seems that we should get used to take even international institutions’ forecasts not seriously either!
Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published a report about the world, including Iran’s economy.
The economic forecasts for 2021 predict that the Iranian economy will experience a 3.2 percent real growth in 2021. That sounds amazing, promising, astonishing, and all other good feelings. The only thing it does not sound is REALISTIC!
IMF states that the Iranian GDP had contracted by 5 percent in 2020. Therefore, reaching 3.2 percent real growth by next year, means nearly 8.2 percent total growth.
Maybe IMF does not recall that how much we struggled to reach a real 5% growth a year after the nuclear deal? Although at that time, we had resumed exporting our petroleum at a pace of nearly 2.7 million barrels per day, it was still not easy to realize such growth.
The economic forecasts for 2021 even see a 3 percent-point decrease for our next year inflation rate. So, we will have only 30 percent inflation rate for 2021, which sounds much more optimistic than 33%. Thanks to IMF for its good news.
According to this report, perhaps we should no longer be worried that we currently do not export petroleum, or that the United States has reintroduced all kinds of sanctions, including putting another group of 18 Iranian banks in the black list. Not even thinking about the devaluation of Rial which is sinking further day by day. Leave alone Coronavirus crisis which is taking more than 270 lives every day.
Maybe for our GDP growth it is irrelevant that one USD today is worth 320,000 rials, from 150,000 rilas in June 2020. We will grow next year! Evviva!
It sounds more like if the report has been “sponsored”!
Well, we are not going to spoil the good news with some “fake bad ones” about how many problems we have here!
So that’s it for this week. Keep the good mood up, if any good mood is left at all!